2011-04-24

2011 NSW election

New South Wales state election, 2011

New South Wales state election, 2011
New South Wales
2007
26 March 2011
2015

All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
First party Second party
Barry O'Farrell 2010-Cropped.jpg Kristina KeneallyCrop.jpg
Leader Barry O'Farrell Kristina Keneally
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 4 April 2007 4 December 2009
Leader's seat Ku-ring-gai Heffron
Last election 35 seats 52 seats
Seats won 69 seats 20 seats
Seat change increase34 decrease32
Percentage 51.2% 25.6%
Swing increase14.1 decrease13.4

Premier before election

Kristina Keneally
Labor

Premier after election

Barry O'Farrell
Liberal/National coalition

Elections to the 55th Parliament of New South Wales were held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year incumbent Australian Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated by the Liberal-National coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Results

Lower house

The two-party preferred vote, excluding votes which were exhausted in the distribution of preferences under the New South Wales optional preferential vote, was 64.2% for the Liberal/National Coalition and 35.8% for Labor.

Upper house

Seats changing hands

Background

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, are the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.

On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history. The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo. Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party-preferred margin of 54.5% to 45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 percentage points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candodate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history.

Key Dates

Campaign

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011 in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields. Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs - Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Lewis, Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.

The Coalition were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 36 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier. However, Labor was predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result.

Resulting parliament

The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house – in constrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats at the 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition will be required to pass legislation. The balance of power is expected to shift from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both will need to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens oppose legislation.

Retiring members

Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have confirmed their retirement are:

Legislative Assembly

Labor (22)

Liberal (5)

Nationals (2)

Legislative Council

Labor (4)

Greens (1)

Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Better Premier ratings
DateLabor
Keneally
Liberal
O'Farrell
Uncommitted
2011 election
21–24 Mar 201132%48%20%
9–11 Mar 201135%48%17%
Jan–Feb 201132%47%21%
Nov–Dec 201035%40%25%
Sep–Oct 201035%42%23%
Jul–Aug 201039%39%22%
May–Jun 201044%36%20%
Mar–Apr 201045%30%25%
Jan–Feb 201040%31%29%
Nov–Dec 200935%34%31%
Sep–Oct 200931%36%33%
Jul–Aug 200932%33%35%
May–Jun 200933%32%35%
Mar–Apr 200933%31%36%
Jan–Feb 200934%29%37%
Nov–Dec 200830%33%37%
Sep–Oct 200835%28%37%
Jul–Aug 200832%39%29%
May–Jun 200832%39%29%
Mar–Apr 200836%33%31%
Jan–Mar 200837%30%33%
2007 election
21–22 Mar 200758%24%18%
Jan–Feb 200748%19%33%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
Morris Iemma, Peter Debnam Nathan Rees
Legislative Assembly opinion polling
Primary vote2PP vote
DateALPLIBNATGRNOTHALPL/NP
2011 election25.6%38.6%12.6%10.3%13.0%35.8%64.2%
21–24 Mar 201123%41%9%12%15%35.9%64.1%
9–11 Mar 201126%43%7%11%13%37%63%
Jan–Feb 201123%40%6%17%14%38%62%
Nov–Dec 201024%40%5%15%16%39%61%
Sep–Oct 201023%41%5%17%14%37%63%
Jul–Aug 201025%41%5%14%15%39%61%
May–Jun 201025%41%5%16%12%39%61%
Mar– Apr 201031%37%5%14%13%45%55%
Jan–Feb 201030%39%3%12%14%43%57%
Nov–Dec 200926%39%5%17%13%41%59%
Sep–Oct 200930%36%6%12%16%45%55%
Jul–Aug 200932%37%4%14%13%46%54%
May–Jun 200931%36%5%14%14%45%55%
Mar–Apr 200933%36%4%13%14%47%53%
Jan–Feb 200930%38%4%15%13%44%56%
Nov–Dec 200826%38%5%14%17%41%59%
Sep – Oct 200829%38%4%11%18%44%56%
Jul–Aug 200833%36%4%13%14%48%52%
May–Jun 200832%36%5%13%14%48%52%
Mar–Apr 200835%35%3%14%13%51%49%
Jan–Mar 200834%34%5%14%13%50%50%
2007 election39.0%26.9%10.1%9.0%15.0%52.3%47.7%
21–22 Mar 200742%29%6%6%17%56.5%43.5%
Jan–Feb 200745%28%5%7%15%59%41%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

Newspaper endorsements

See also

References

External links






Retrieved from : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_state_election,_2011