New South Wales state election, 2011
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34
32Elections to the 55th Parliament of New South Wales were held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year incumbent Australian Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated by the Liberal-National coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
Results
Lower house
The two-party preferred vote, excluding votes which were exhausted in the distribution of preferences under the New South Wales optional preferential vote, was 64.2% for the Liberal/National Coalition and 35.8% for Labor.
Upper house
Seats changing hands
Background
The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, are the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.
On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history. The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo. Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party-preferred margin of 54.5% to 45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 percentage points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candodate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history.
Key Dates
Campaign
The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011 in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields. Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs - Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.
The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Lewis, Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.
The Coalition were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 36 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier. However, Labor was predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result.
Resulting parliament
The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house – in constrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats at the 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene.
In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition will be required to pass legislation. The balance of power is expected to shift from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both will need to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens oppose legislation.
Retiring members
Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have confirmed their retirement are:
Legislative Assembly
Labor (22)
Liberal (5)
Nationals (2)
Legislative Council
Labor (4)
Greens (1)
Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
| Date | Labor Keneally | Liberal O'Farrell | Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 election | – | – | – |
| 21–24 Mar 2011 | 32% | 48% | 20% |
| 9–11 Mar 2011 | 35% | 48% | 17% |
| Jan–Feb 2011 | 32% | 47% | 21% |
| Nov–Dec 2010 | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Sep–Oct 2010 | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Jul–Aug 2010 | 39% | 39% | 22% |
| May–Jun 2010 | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Mar–Apr 2010 | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Jan–Feb 2010 | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Nov–Dec 2009 | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Sep–Oct 2009 | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Jul–Aug 2009 | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| May–Jun 2009 | 33% | 32% | 35% |
| Mar–Apr 2009 | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Jan–Feb 2009 | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Nov–Dec 2008 | 30% | 33% | 37% |
| Sep–Oct 2008 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Jul–Aug 2008 | 32% | 39% | 29% |
| May–Jun 2008 | 32% | 39% | 29% |
| Mar–Apr 2008 | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Jan–Mar 2008 | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| 2007 election | – | – | – |
| 21–22 Mar 2007 | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Jan–Feb 2007 | 48% | 19% | 33% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. Morris Iemma, Peter Debnam Nathan Rees | |||
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | |||
| 2011 election | 25.6% | 38.6% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 35.8% | 64.2% | |||
| 21–24 Mar 2011 | 23% | 41% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 35.9% | 64.1% | |||
| 9–11 Mar 2011 | 26% | 43% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 37% | 63% | |||
| Jan–Feb 2011 | 23% | 40% | 6% | 17% | 14% | 38% | 62% | |||
| Nov–Dec 2010 | 24% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 16% | 39% | 61% | |||
| Sep–Oct 2010 | 23% | 41% | 5% | 17% | 14% | 37% | 63% | |||
| Jul–Aug 2010 | 25% | 41% | 5% | 14% | 15% | 39% | 61% | |||
| May–Jun 2010 | 25% | 41% | 5% | 16% | 12% | 39% | 61% | |||
| Mar– Apr 2010 | 31% | 37% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Jan–Feb 2010 | 30% | 39% | 3% | 12% | 14% | 43% | 57% | |||
| Nov–Dec 2009 | 26% | 39% | 5% | 17% | 13% | 41% | 59% | |||
| Sep–Oct 2009 | 30% | 36% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Jul–Aug 2009 | 32% | 37% | 4% | 14% | 13% | 46% | 54% | |||
| May–Jun 2009 | 31% | 36% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Mar–Apr 2009 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |||
| Jan–Feb 2009 | 30% | 38% | 4% | 15% | 13% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Nov–Dec 2008 | 26% | 38% | 5% | 14% | 17% | 41% | 59% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 29% | 38% | 4% | 11% | 18% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Jul–Aug 2008 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| May–Jun 2008 | 32% | 36% | 5% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| Mar–Apr 2008 | 35% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jan–Mar 2008 | 34% | 34% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 50% | 50% | |||
| 2007 election | 39.0% | 26.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 52.3% | 47.7% | |||
| 21–22 Mar 2007 | 42% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 56.5% | 43.5% | |||
| Jan–Feb 2007 | 45% | 28% | 5% | 7% | 15% | 59% | 41% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | ||||||||||
Newspaper endorsements
See also
References
External links
Retrieved from : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_state_election,_2011
